How Flight Connection Risk is Calculated
Airlines set Minimum Connecting Times (MCT) for every airport in the world. However, official MCTs assume on-time arrivals, empty hallways, and no delays. Our calculator models real-world connection hurdles:
- Deplaning Delays (15–20 mins): If you are seated in the back of a widebody jet, it can take 20 minutes just to exit the aircraft door.
- Gate Cutoff Rule (15 mins): Airlines close boarding doors 15 minutes before scheduled departure time. A 45-minute layover actually leaves only 30 minutes of usable movement time!
- Terminal Transfer Shuttles (15–25 mins): At airports like London Heathrow (LHR) or Chicago O'Hare (ORD), changing terminals requires inter-terminal trains or shuttle buses outside security.
- Customs & Immigration (30–60 mins): Arriving internationally in the US, Canada, or the UK requires passport clearance and TSA re-screening.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will my checked bags make a tight 45-minute connection?
At major hub airports, ground baggage crews typically need 40 to 60 minutes to transfer luggage between aircraft holds. Even if you sprint and board the connection, your luggage may be delayed until a later flight.
How often do flights miss connections?
According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, approximately 18% to 22% of commercial flights experience delays over 15 minutes. Booking layovers with under a 20-minute safety buffer significantly increases your risk of missing your flight.